Selling your property this summer? It’s probably not coming home.

Property commentators often talk about market conditions as ‘the perfect storm’. It’s one of the English language’s finest oxymorons and rarely describes anything positive. Now, in mid 2026, we find ourselves with a set of conditions conspiring against sellers.

In late April 2026, the Bank of England chose to hold the base rate at 3.75%. It also gave an indication that it could stay that way for longer than predicted. This contrasts with forecasts bandied around at the end of 2025, where the most bullish thought we’d see two or three base rate cuts this year. Rate predictions do, however, always carry a caveat.

Is oil tanking the economy?

Consumers were reminded that it only takes one decision somewhere in the world for the global economy to change course. That decision came from Donald Trump. Political events make everyone nervous. The current price of oil and energy is super volatile – even threatening to derail tourist flights - and those costs are trickling down

Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation was 3.3% in the 12 months to March 2026 – above the Bank's 2% target. It is another percentage expected to rise in the coming months, reflecting how the cost of goods is growing more expensive by the month.

Oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz may appear totally unrelated to property but the game of chess taking place on the waters between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman is impacting our domestic sales market. Swap rates – which influence mortgage rates far more than the Bank’s base rate – tend to err on the higher side during times of uncertainty.

Mortgage rates rise by almost 1%

Figures released by Moneyfacts perfectly illustrate this very scenario. In May 2026, the average 5 year fixed mortgage rate was 5.68%, compared to 4.95%, before the conflict started. When comparing the average 2 year fixed mortgage rate, borrowers were being offered an average rate of 5.78%, up from 4.83%.

That’s two aspects that may make property purchasers pause: continuing strain on finances, thanks to the cost of living crisis, and mortgage rates that have increased by almost 1% over the last few months.

A third aspect was recently revealed by Rightmove and partially relates to mortgage rates. In May, the portal declared it was cheaper to rent than buy a property across much of the UK – the first time it had fallen in a tenant’s favour since June 2025. That’s one less reason to buy a property.

It found renters were paying £123 less per month, on average, than homeowners. Rightmove’s analysis showed a new mortgage on a typical home currently costs around £1,670 a month, compared to the country’s average monthly rent of £1,547.

Buyers? They’d rather be barbecuing

Then you have the seasonal shift. Summer is almost here and even if there’s the merest hint of charcoal and suncream in the air, buyers go on strike. Agents often talk up the summer months as the time when the most serious purchasers are left in the market, with time wasters tempted away by holidays and family events.

The carrot is dangled: those making enquiries and booking viewings during June, July and August are dedicated to offering and moving quickly. While this may be true in previous years, we have a perfect storm that will detract even the most desperate of movers. Just the thought of filling up the fuel tank to drive to viewings is enough to put things on pause. Serious sellers? They’ll quickly take the ‘let’s wait and see’ approach.

Finally, it’s World Cup year – not as unrelated as you may think. A 2024 report released by TwentyCi claimed people are ‘less likely to view or place offers on properties’ during the globe’s elite football tournament, while Rightmove’s historical data shows traffic to its portals dips when England score World Cup goals.

Selling your property this summer? It’s probably not coming home. If you’d like to sell to a guaranteed buyer this year and avoid the unpredictability of the open market, get your cash offer from Open Property Group.

We’re buying direct from sellers all summer long, with no estate agency fees, no legal fees and no chain involved. Contact us to chat through your plans and we’ll guarantee you completion in an average of 35 days. We also let you set your own completion date, to suit your exact circumstances.